I have always believed that change creates opportunity and massive change creates massive opportunity.
Americans want change, and they are getting it in spades. Unfortunately, the change we are experiencing today is mostly showing up in evaporated credit and restricted consumer spending. Belt tightening will ripple through our entire economy, but this does not necessarily mean trouble for all. What it does mean is that organizations with flawed or outdated business models will need to change or experience an acceleration in their demise even if they have traditionally been entrenched and dominant in their markets. This creates opportunity for organizations to become stronger through reform and for newer firms to exploit the weaknesses of the traditional market leaders. That’s where you will find growth and opportunity.
For example,
Detroit (GM, Ford and Chrysler). I actually like their cars as do many Americans – in fact, I’m the proud owner of 3 GM vehicles –, but their cost structure is too high to produce them profitably. I understand that Toyota’s sales were off more than GM’s last month, but GM is hindered by massive pension obligations and high overhead. Either Detroit will get their costs in line or they will become less and less relevant. The economy will accelerate one of these outcomes.
Enterprise applications software (Oracle and SAP). A business model that relies on customers signing massive checks upfront without guarantees of performance will be challenged now that there are alternative SaaS offerings that allow customers to pay as they go and deliver benefit faster – especially as capital budgets dry up. Just as green-screen applications vendors like Walker Interactive and D&B Software were replaced by SAP and Oracle, so these existing vendors will be replaced by SaaS firms. The economy will accelerate this transition due to the weaknesses in their business models and create opportunity for the SaaS firms.
Retailing. While many retailers were reporting disappointing holiday sales, Amazon reported “Best Ever” sales. Why? Maybe it was all the snow in December or maybe it was people’s reluctance to get in a car and go to a crowded mall. What would you call a shopping experience that saves a consumer time, money and aggravation — and can be operated with a lower cost structure due to the elimination of expensive brick and mortar store fronts and redundant inventory? I would call it competitive advantage. In response retailers must integrate on-line alternatives to keep customers and become more profitable.
Change is good. It creates opportunity. You just have to know where to look.

Greg Gianforte
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